Seeding projections
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- January
- 26
Here’s a second look at the projected playoff seedings. Remember, it’s all the teams in League 1 (by league record), followed by teams in Leagues 2, 3 and 4 that meet the qualifying standard. I’m keeping Carmel and Byram Hills in for now, but if the season ended today, there would be 12 teams in Division I (seeds 1-4 get a bye in the first round) and nine teams in Division II (seeds 1-7 get a bye).
Division I
1. Suffern (8-1-1): Remaining league games are @WP, @Mp, @JJ, Mk
2. Mamaroneck (6-2-1) or White Plains (6-2): White Plains won first game head to head. Rematch is Saturday. Both teams would still win league title if they win out.
3. White Plains or Mamaroneck: The spot no one wants to be in, with CN looming in the quarterfinals.
4. Mahopac (3-4): Already beat RTH twice this season (once was in a tournament).
5. Rye Town/Harrison (1-6-1): Needs to beat Mahopac on Feb. 9 and pull at least one upset against WP, Rye, Mk, or Pelham to have a chance for fourth seed.
6. Clarkstown North (6-0-1): Already beat Scarsdale and ETB, tied NRk. Plays them all again between Feb. 7-14.
7. Scarsdale (3-1): Beat North Rockland in OT Friday night.
8. North Rockland (2-1-1): Beat ETB in December.
9. E/T/B (2-2): Still plenty of time to get to No. 7 seed. Hasn’t even played Scarsdale yet.
(Mount Pleasant 2-10 overall, 1-5 in league is currently out)
10. New Rochelle (8-1-1): Will either be the 9 or 10 seed, depending on whether MP qualifies.
(Clarkstown South 4-12-1, 3-8-1 is currently out)
11. Sleepy Hollow/Irvington (7-1-1): Already beat L/P once this season. Unless MP or CS qualify, its reward for winning League 4 is a first-round game at the League 2 winner (likely Clarkstown North).
12. Lakeland/Panas (9-3): Should like where it stands, with a potential first round match against RTH. Next game is Carmel on Sunday.
13. Carmel (6-7-1, 6-8-1 overall): The Rams have five games left, all league games against Byram, N/TZ, Paw, CS and Oss. With 19 games on its schedule, it needs 18 points. Unless it upsets Paw or Oss, it needs to beat N/TZ and go 2-0 or 1-0-1 against South and Byram.
(Nyack/TZ 5-10, 3-7 is currently out)
Division II
1. Pelham (5-4): Five remaining league games are @Mp, WP, @Rye, RTH and Mp).
2. Rye (4-4): Beat Pelham on Jan. 13, so it still controls its own destiny. Not sure if the No. 2 seed is better this year.
3. John Jay (0-10-1): Locked into this seed. Will play League 3 winner if Brewster qualifies.
4. Brewster (2-2-1, 5-8-1 overall): The Bears aren’t out of the woods yet. With a current 23-game schedule it needs 17 points, which means just three more wins (or two wins and two ties) in nine games. But check out the remaining schedule: two games each against Clarkstown North and Scarsdale, and then White Plains, E/T/B, Pawling, Mount Pleasant and Newburgh. It could come down to the wire between the fourth seed and being knocked out entirely.
5. Yorktown (1-6-1): Still safe with 7-8-1 overall record. Has a 24-game schedule, so it needs just two more points to make the playoffs (I’m looking at Harvey on Feb. 4).
6. Ossining (9-1-1): Tied Pawling and beat S/NS. Two game lead with eight to play.
7. Somers/North Salem (8-3) or Pawling (8-3-2): S/NS beat Pawling 7-2 earlier this month. Next weekend (New Ro and Ossining) could move them to 6th or drop them to 8th.
8. Pawling (8-3-2) or S/NS: Pawling’s current two game losing streak could mean facing Pelham or Rye in the first round instead of John Jay.
9. Byram Hills (4-8, 5-8 overall): The Bobcats have five games left, so they need 15 points. That means they need to go 2-2-1 with a remaining schedule of Carmel, PR, New Ro, S/NS and L/P. Winning its next two games would be a huge help.
(Fox Lane 3-11, 2-8 is currently out)
10. Pearl River (5-5-1, 6-7-1 overall): Currently in by the slimmest possible margin. With seven league games left, they need 19 points in 21 games, which means 3-4 or 2-3-2 against HG, N/TZ, L/P, Byram, K/PV, SH/I and S/NS. Beat the bottom three teams in League 4 and the Pirates are in.
(Greeley 4-12, 3-11 is currently out)
(Kennedy/PV 2-11, 2-11 currently out)
Here is what teams that are currently out need to do to make the playoffs. (Note: This is based on the teams’ most recent schedule. The math will obviously change if someone schedules O’Neill twice in February).
Mount Pleasant needs an overall winning percentage of 35. RIght now, it has 19 games on the schedule, which means it needs 14 points to qualify. So it needs to go 5-2 or 4-1-2 in its last seven games, which include two games each against North Rockland and Scarsdale).
Clarkstown South needs an overall winning percentage of 40 and has 24 games on the schedule, which means it needs 20 points. So it needs to be 5-1-1 or better in its last seven games, which includes Pawling, New Ro and Lakeland/Panas.
Nyack/TZ needs an overall winning percentage of 45 and has 24 games on the schedule, which means 22 points. It needs 12 points in its last nine games (6-3 or 5-2-2). Remaining games include SH/I, Pawling and Ossining.
Fox Lane needs an overall winning percentage of 40 and has 20 games on the schedule, which means 16 points. So it needs to go 5-1 or 4-0-2. Toughest remaining opponents are SH/I and Ossining.
Greeley needs an overall winning percentage of 45 and has 23 games on the schedule, which means 21 points. So it needs to finish 6-0-1. If it adds a 24th game, it would need 22 points (7-1).
Kennedy/PV is mathematically eliminated. It needed 18 points in 19 games, which is now impossible.
This entry was posted
on Monday, January 26th, 2009 at 12:28 pm by Harold Gutmann. 
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cant beleive you have byram over S/NS
who gets north in the 1st round? the 5th seed?
thanks harold
nyr,
Fixed it, thanks.
Top,
The 11 seed plays the 6 seed in the first round, so right now SH/I would play North. If you believe North will win League 2, which means its locked into the 6 seed, then the possible opponents are New Ro (if MP somehow qualifies), Clarkstown South (if it somehow qualifies), SH/I (most likely) or Lakeland/Panas (if it overtakes SH/I).
Harold- Jay beat Brewster 2 times over the holiday break for its only 2 wins of the season before last nite’s Jay win over Scarsdale. Those two non league games could be costly for the Bears.
Harold- Still think the Rye/Pelham battle for DII Seed 1 is important. If Brewster and Byram Hills (the two most likely to fail to qualify) don’t make it, that means the one seed plays Pearl River while the two seed gets a somewhat more dangerous game vs. the lowest finishing League Three team among Ossining (decent depth), Pawling (Burdick and Delaverne) and SNS (Marasco). I know Pearl River is no slouch (they beat an injury depleted Pawling team this past weekend), but those other League Three teams have a little more firepower.
And if Brewster does get in making it a 9 team field, both the One and Two seeds end up playing two of those League three teams in the quarters as long as the lowest finishing League three qualifier beats Pearl River in the only opening round game. But, if the two top seeds win those quarter games, the One seed gets an easlier semi game in the Yorktown/Brewster winner than the two seed gets in the Jay/top league 3 qualifier winner.
Anyone know how ties work in the percentages? Because their are teams with a lot of ties
Just for argument sake, you can be 5-0-15, and you would only have a 25% winning percentage and be out of the playoffs with no losses.
Am I incorrect, or is this yet another glich in this brilliant scheme?
Ties?
I believe the ties count as half a win. Therefore, in your example, they would have 12.5 wins and be over 50%.
Westchester Hockey is right, ties count as a half/win. So going 5-5 is the same as going 0-0-10 or 3-3-4, (all three teams would have a “win percentage” of 50), and a team that goes 5-0-15 is the same as 12-12-1.
Yes, that is correct, but in terms of tie-breakers, the team with more wins is higher in the standings. So in Harold’s example, the 5-5 team would be seeded first, then the 3-3-4 team, then the 0-0-10 team since the 5-5 team had more wins than the other two.
That’s a good answer guys, it makes a big difference, thanks
who would play who? which seeds against other seeds
would there be byes in the DII bracket for the top seeds?
I don’t understand how Pawling would play Pelham or Rye in the first round if they get the 8 seed. I guess thats if Byram or Brewster dont make it and then there is one bye for the 1 seed?
I think South has a decent shot at the playoffs. They tied PR who beat Pawling. I think De La Verne has left Pawling as it looks like he has taken over the #1 spot for the B. Bulldogs. Was Burdick there vs. PR, I find it srange that Pawling scored 4 and Burdick didn’t register a shot.
South should have won against New Ro the first time as they dominated the game, but Pru had a point in all 6 goals and Felieu saved them.
They have to beat Carmel, Greely, and Fox Lane, or forget it, after that 1-1-1 against New Ro, Pawling, and LP who while SH/I gets a lot of credit is also a league 4 team that has no business in that league
Harold,
first off i would like to point out that ossining is 12-1-1 and 5-0 in league 2 and how could they possibly be seeded 6th in your seed projections..
and i think you should look over the records
Ossining Fan,
Ossining is in League 3. And which records are incorrect?
Cash cab,
In Division II, the quarterfinals are 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5. So Pawling would play Rye or Pelham in the quarterfinals if its the 7 or 8 seed and wins its first round game.
Ossining fan- If both Yorktown and Brewster win 35% of their respective games, the highest League Three Ossining can be seeded (even if the O went undefeated for the whole season) is 6th. They could schedule Mamo and Suffern, beat them, and still be no higher than a 6th seed if the League Two teams qualify. Jay could go 0-24 and they would still be a 3 seed. Those are the consequenses of a League Three schedule in a power league system. If Pawling and/or SNS finish ahead of you in League Three, Ossining could be as low as an 8 seed. Still, the O will get a chance to show their stuff against the higher seeds in the playoff bracket.
Ossining Fan-
Ossining is in League 3, not League 2. They are not 5-0 in league games, they are 9-1-1. For league 3 teams, the crossover games with league 4 count in your league record. The standings can be found at http://www.section1hockey.com/standings.html.
As for their seeding, they are projected to be 6th because League 1 teams get seeded the highest, then league 2, then league 3, then league 4. Pelham, Rye, & JJCR will get the top three seeds in whatever order. Seeds 4 & 5 go to Brewster & Yorktown should both of them qualify. The 6th seed would go to the highest finishing League 3 team in D2, which currently is Ossining. If Brester and/or Yorktown do not qualify (possible, but not extremely likely), then Ossining would move up in the seedings.
Harold put up the league standings. Ossining is 9-1-1 in league play. Games between league 3 and 4 teams count as league games. You tied Pawling (League 3) and loss to SH/I (League 4).
Totally ignore what I just wrote. Everyone else covered it.
A simple fix would give the coaches the choice. In a power system, the last 2 teams in League 1 are expected to be stronger than the best team in L2. This is clearly not the case for the past several years. The WP coach would clearly choose to play Pac or RTH before a number of teams in lower leagues.
How are they going to seed it next year without Power leagues.
Etb is 5-2 overall 2-2 in the league so where is this tie you wrote of
Thanks Harold, that makes sense
Pelham has 58 goals (as of whenever that stats were updated but they had 0 in their last game anyway so its probably not that out of date). Flory has 26. Thats 45%. Emerson has 14 and Mammone 11. That’s another 43%. The entire rest of the team has 7 (2 players with 2 each and 3 with 1 each). That is really, really, really, relying heavily on your 1st line. Wow!
Actually its probably even worse. Harms has 1 and Dzenis two and those were probably scored with the 1st line on the ice. That’s just 4 goals from non 1st line forwards. The whole year!
Does anyone know stats or what happened with Jay and Scarsdale? How did Jay do it? Know they have the talent but they had’t showed up yet this season and Scarsdale had been on a roll. Also, who do Yktwn and Brwstr play under Hal’s current seeding? 1 v. 8 with top four getting bye?
jay beat scarsdale 4-1..dominated
The object is to win hockey games. Who scores who doesn`t doesn`t really matter. If thats what Pelham has thats what they have. Looking at Section 1 website Pelham is 11-6. All losses to the strongest and more powerful teams. It also has a lot to do with Pelhams schedule. They only play 1 team that is not a league 1 team all season. They play the league 1 schedule then upstate tournament play and thats it. Maybe if they were playing an easier smaller school schedule and not a Mamaroneck type schedule others could lit the lamp. In order to have a winning record with that tough of schedule the rest of the team must be making contributions. I would say they are making those contributions that are not statistically tracked. Looking at the team stat sheet posted on Section 1 site there is many new and young faces that you may not remember from last season or years past. rookies and returners with less experience are forced into the action. The team is 11-6 nontheless and could be on track for the first seed spot once again.
Jay
No kidding-did Oliverio play for Scarsdale?Gluck?
That is amazing. Team is winning right? 11-6? ranked high in the state polls?
Hagen is definitely not the best defensemen on Mamaroneck. The only reason why he’s considered good is because he has alot of assists and that’s mainly because of the Mamaroneck scorekeeper.
Last year Hagen had 36 assists at year end. This year he will not even come close. Guess the scorekeeper knows that he’s being watched!
taylor …....... as long as you are so infatuated with the pelham stats, please tell us how many sectional finals they played in and how many you have played in not counting mens league.
Ice
Oliverio scored in the first and that was it. JJ dominated possessions and shots. Scarsdale, with short rotation, was possibly hurt by no ice cut after first (they have had double cuts in other games). Coach played all in third, when final two were scored.
RTH blew another one. It seems like their forwards and defense have been switched around, giving them two solid forward lines. However, the third forward line seemed to really struggle tonight, giving up two goals and creating no offense.
While the O has improved, this new line-up seriously cripples the D. I’m sure the defensive players are nice people, but they seemed to really have trouble tonight against WP. There are simply some kids on D who are now getting too much time since they cannot play at this level. RTH would be crazy to go into the post-season with the D they currently have.
anyone have predictions for CN’s game on thursday vs White plains
and also there game friday vs Brewster
Taylor,
You have this anti-pelham thing that I have noticed all along, whats the issue?
concerned,
the rth defense has been incredibly weak all year, and the lineup change tonight made it only weaker
and also there were 2 or 3 kids on offense that simply should not be playing at this level (i dont want to post their #’s because that’s unnecessary)
rth needs to keep tweaking their lineup until they find the right line combinations
White Plains can surprise CN if they limit Willows to shooting from the outside and play him very physical. He is a terrific hockey player at this level (L2). His size is what I think will hold him back from making the next step to D1 or D3. I think any club team would be happy to have him in a year or two. We kept him off balance throughout the game, one hit followed by another took him off his stride because he will only make a pass to #26. Now it appears as though CN is afraid of Willows getting hurt. They put him on D on the power play and left the sophomore D to get banged up in front of the net. All his shots were from the outside and the hits he made on our players were only on the smaller guys. He moved away from Meany at every turn. I see now that he is always on D during the power play now. That way he can shoot from the outside without getting touched. We have watched the video a few times. The Suffern coach and players already have their strategy worked out. I think that CN will be make it through the first round of the playoffs and bow out by the second round. That is if #9 and #26 choose to go to their HS games instead of the playoffs down in PA.
this year’s Rye Town = CN of 2007-2008
harold,
the ossining hockey team is 6-0 league and 12-1-1 overall and they should have a better seed then 6th..
We have watched the video a few times. The Suffern coach and players already have their strategy worked out. I think that CN will be make it through the first round of the playoffs and bow out by the second round. That is if #9 and #26 choose to go to their HS games instead of the playoffs down in PA. I see the U18AA playoffs dates have already been posted. Should be interesting. Even if they show, they may not have any legs left. Interesting to see if CN season ends with a down hill slide. They have some tough games in February to end the season. Not like the push overs they had ion the beginning where one player can skate around untouched until he sees an opening and shoots.
Rye Town, RTH and Concerned… what game did you watch,
Rye Town played a solid game for most of the game and their most complete effort of the year. Usually they gel early and slide at the end of the season. It has taken them a little longer to figure out how to play this year but they played a nice game tonight. Yes, they blew it in the end but as several people said at the game.. this should be a turning point for them and their season. They got some games out of people that haven’t played well all year including one or two of their “best” players who have been far from best. I wont name names or numbers either.
The Defense played a rather good game (last goal the exception). To say that they don’t belong at the level is to continue throwing stones at some hard working and talent kids. The defense played rather well. But then again, the three of you haven’t had a positive thing to say all year.
It is though, odd and out of character that RTH is not in the type of shape they have been in the past and get worn out despite going three lines tonight.
RTH played a good game. Take some enjoyment in a great game played and a great turning point in their season (as it was said coming out of the locker room). I hope that RTH is “back”
NR
I don’t think it’s as easy as you’re making it seem. I don’t believe NR actually shut down Willows or Shuman. Willows had a bad game, his first out of the 16 phenominal games he’s had all season. Keep thinking its that easy to shut him down by just keeping him to the outside and your in for a rude awakening next time you meet CN. He’s also the most physical and toughest player in the section, so I doubt he was shying away from any of the NR defensemen.
The most physical and toughest player in the section? What kind of rides do they have in the fantasy land where you live? At what, like 5’9” and I guess 180lbs. That is the most physical player in the section? Come on, when he can knock over someone with 25-30 lbs on him then we can talk. Right now all I have seen are a lot of elbows and high hits made against third line players in L2 that are only in the game because they are getting a beating and the game is almost over. I have watched enough of their games this season.
The NR game was no fluke. They shut him down. I would like to know if he plays travel the same way. Does he try to skate through 3 guys or does he look to pass (only if his buddy is on the ice)? Haven’t seen him play travel so I can only guess.
Rofofsky # 17 for JJ had 3 pts (1g, 2a)
Greenberg #88 for JJ had 2 points(1g,1a)
Turecamo #4 for JJ had 1 point (1g)
Whol #3 for JJ had 1 point (1g)
Oliviero #14 for Scars had 1 pt (1g)
HAHA, really? matt willows can only lay big hits on scrubby players who can’t skate? Even I know that isn’t true. I’ve seen him lay out players twice his size.
Yea Willows can hit anything moving, and he can still do it after playing 40 minutes in a game.
I played for Pelham. We went to the the section 1 final in ‘88 and lost to Woodlands/Irvington. I’m human and I have mixed feelings about Pelham but mostly I’m rooting for them. I don’t think my criticism is harsh or unfair. Let me know if you think otherwise. My posts were about how much of their scoring comes from one line, not about how they aren’t a good team. I think they are good and I think they’ll win the section1 D2 championship barring some bad luck. They’re competitive with any team in the section. They beat Suffern and lost to CN 5-3 and the 1st Mamaroneck game seemed a lot closer in the territorial play than Saturday night, so yeah, they’re right up there. I post about them more than other teams because I pay more attention to them. I haven’t even looked at anyone else’s team stats. I noticed that Flory had a ton of goals and Emerson and Mammone had a lot too and wondered how many of the teams total goals they had. Its probably not that unusual for the 1st line to have the majority of the goals but its probably more so for Pelham than most other teams. I was surprised when I checked it out but it confirmed my impressions of what I’d seen at the games. I do think that they would benefit a lot from some more production from other players. Its not as though they aren’t on the ice at all and its not as though they only focus on D and just sit back and don’t even try to score. They just haven’t scored much. They’re good skaters so they can play tough D and backcheck effectively (although the 3rd line was a bit overmatched against Mamk on Sat) but they don’t really score. (Watch the 3rd line score all 3 in a 3-2 finals win over Rye, I hope it happens).
I think next year they’ll have to win a lot of very low scoring games because they don’t appear to have much goal scoring returning but they skate well and they have Dzenis (and Harms if he doesn’t go prep like someone here said) and Perrorazio and Maselli are good too, so they might be able do that. This year there’s nothing wrong with winning with production from one line and tough defensive hockey from all 3 lines.
Matt Willows is really a secret govt experiment, the first fully genetically engineered super-man, the soldier of the future. That’s why he has super-human strength and agility but he’s only like 140 pounds.
Taylor,
I do not think you are anti Pelham. You are interested in the team and you question the team at times. If I were to take a stab I would say Taylor Sanders. Forwsrd, who scored quite a bit for Pelham.
which seeds play who
I have seen Pelham for years. The first group they put out is really good. The lack of scoring from the others is a problem but they have mostly first year kids. The kids on those lines are either 9th graders or kids who did n t crack the lineup last year.
CN is a better match with Suffern’s finesse, rather than North Rockland’s brawn. Although Suffern is a better team than NR.
NR executed a perfect game plan. ETB and Pelham with better personnel could not do it.
However, I don’t know if CN can win against Suffern twice. I have to much respect for the Suffern coaching. The memory of Suffern’s victories over CN 2 years ago against the Willows and Shuman brothers tandem still resonates.
Let’s see…where do I want my son to go to school and play & for what coach…hmmm Mamaroneck??
zig zag 101
No responsiblity course
Advanced Life lessons
would make a fine man out of my boy
Correct. If I was trying to hide my identity I wouldn’t use my real first name. By the way did you know that no matter how you drop Matt Willows he always lands on his feet?
Taylor,
I was just confused by the fact that you didn’t seem to have a connection to any team and yet were always, within reason, questioning Pelham. Now I understand.
I agree next year scoring is going to be difficult for Pelham. They do have all 6 d-men coming back, hopefully, if Harms stays. We might see Masselli moved up to forward after this year, he played some forward when he was younger.
Luckily I will be on college and not have to watch it happen.
Topper,
There’s no doubting that RTH played a great game. That’s why they were winning after two periods. However, the defense barely hung on. The offense was actually creating chances, but the D could not keep up with the WP forwards. For the first two periods the RTH defense relied on the goalie or just took penalties; luckily for RTH they were actually able to score on the PK. In the third, the D stopped getting lucky and showing their true colors; that’s when RTH could not get the puck out of their zone and gave up two goals to lose the game. If RTH wants to go somewhere in the playoffs, they would be crazy to go into the postseason with this defensive alignment.
If Pac top three can come out playing hard and catch a few breaks, Pac may surprise a few teams in the playoffs. Perelle, Mastrocola and Gycek are a strong force if they pull it together in the playoffs. And Pacs goaling has been great this year, Pacs defense can be problematic. Looking forward to the playoffs.
Taylor-
I think you have your years wrong. In 1988, the entire section played in one tourney (it was not split into a D1 tourney & a D2 tourney) with the winner of the Championship going to the state quarterfinals as the D1 rep from section 1 and the loser going as the D2 rep. In 1988, Rye beat Suffern in the championship game. Rye lost in the state quarterfinals that year in D1 while Suffern lost in the D2 state championship game 6-1 to St. John’s of Plattsburgh who later became Seton Catholic of Plattsburgh and has since folded their hockey program.
Correct Lohud. Pelham lost to Woodlands in 1987 not 88 then Woodlands folded the program.
Scarsdale Fan
Thanks for info. I guess Yorktown should hope for zamboni breakdown in the scarsdale game.